The bank’s revised outlook expects softer oil prices to be more than offset by robust performance across non-oil sectors that include tourism, aviation, logistics, financial services and real estate. Non-oil growth is projected at 4.5 percent in 2026, supported by favourable demographics, population inflows and a thriving property market that together reduce the economy’s sensitivity to hydrocarbon cycles. Manufacturing and technology investments are adding further depth while the UAE consolidates its position in reconfigured global supply chains as a gateway between Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
The Central Bank of the UAE projected real GDP growth of 5.3 percent for 2026 in its September 2025 quarterly economic review, a figure that aligns with several other forecasters. The International Monetary Fund anticipates expansion of about 5 percent while the World Bank sees similar growth extending into 2027. Emirates NBD forecast 4.5 percent, citing Dubai’s role as a global trade and tourism centre, and the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales projected growth as high as 5.6 percent driven largely by non-oil sectors that expanded 5.3 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025 according to central bank data.
UAE total foreign trade is forecast to approach the $1 trillion mark by 2026 with the Asia corridor accounting for roughly one-third of that volume, Standard Chartered reported. The assessment highlighted the federation’s emergence as a preferred hub amid shifting trade routes and companies’ search for reliable, well-connected markets. Rola Abu Manneh, CEO of UAE, Middle East and Pakistan at Standard Chartered, said, “The UAE remains a bright spot on the global map, with the nation expected to remain on track to deliver growth at potential for two consecutive years in 2026. As we look toward the projected $1 trillion in foreign trade volumes, the UAE is rapidly cementing its status as a super-connector, navigating seamlessly through global trade fragmentations and thriving within them.”
Twin fiscal and current account surpluses are expected to persist, backed by deep domestic liquidity and prudent policy management, the bank stated. Private-sector credit expansion stood at just over 9 percent year on year in mid-2025 while deposit growth outpaced it, leaving the UAE with the lowest loan-to-deposit ratio in the GCC and providing banks with headroom for domestic and cross-border lending. Inflation is projected to remain contained at around 1.8 percent in 2026, reflecting effective price controls, diversified supply chains and stable housing costs that allow policymakers room to maintain supportive monetary conditions.
Global conditions appear broadly favourable with stronger growth projected for the United States on business investment, corporate tax incentives and artificial intelligence adoption while China expands by around 4.6 percent as it diversifies exports, according to Standard Chartered. Although parts of Europe and Asia may register subdued performance, resilient trade and technological advances should sustain demand in key UAE-linked markets. Government-led investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence and digital services continue to crowd in private capital, the assessment found.
Policy reforms that expanded residency programmes, foreign ownership rules and pro-business regulations have reinforced the UAE’s appeal to talent and investors over recent years, the bank noted. The Central Bank of the UAE figures placed 2024 real GDP growth at 4 percent before the acceleration projected for 2025 and 2026. Economists described the $569 billion GDP base in 2025 as a platform for the country to reach new heights through its long-term diversification strategy and macroeconomic stability.
