The International Monetary Fund projected real GDP growth for the UAE at 3.1 percent in 2026 before a rebound to 5.3 percent in 2027, figures that exceed the anticipated global averages of 3.1 percent and 3.2 percent over the same period. A Central Bank of the UAE assessment estimated expansion at 5.6 percent for both 2025 and 2026, attributing the momentum largely to financial services, tourism and logistics. The performance reflects ongoing diversification that has reduced reliance on hydrocarbons amid fluctuating energy markets.
According to the April 18 WAM report, the UAE’s total foreign trade reached AED6 trillion in 2025, a 15 percent rise compared with 2024, while non-oil foreign trade also recorded substantial gains. Government data cited in the report showed non-oil sectors comprising almost 79 percent of GDP last year, a level that underscores structural shifts in the national economy. These outcomes emerged despite regional geopolitical tensions that have affected several neighboring markets.
The Central Bank of the UAE quarterly review from March 2026 noted that non-hydrocarbon sectors would remain the primary growth engine, particularly in insurance, finance and trade-related services. Such trends align with national strategies that have elevated the UAE’s standing in international competitiveness rankings over the past decade. International institutions have repeatedly highlighted the country’s ability to maintain stability through prudent fiscal policies.
A World Bank forecast issued in mid-2025 anticipated UAE growth of 4.9 percent in 2026, incorporating contributions from major infrastructure projects and expanded global connectivity. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook similarly pointed to the UAE’s resilience, even as it lowered some worldwide projections due to persistent uncertainties. Ratings agency S&P Global affirmed the UAE’s AA sovereign credit rating in this environment, citing strong external balances.
UAE officials have linked the trade surge to advancements in ports, aviation hubs and manufacturing capabilities that have strengthened re-export networks across continents. The report indicated that non-oil exports achieved record shares of overall trade for the first time, outpacing both imports and re-exports in growth rates during parts of 2025. This diversification has drawn increased foreign direct investment into technology, renewable energy and advanced logistics.
Projections for 2027 at 5.3 percent from the IMF suggest the positive trajectory will continue if global conditions remain stable, according to the multilateral organization’s latest assessment. The Central Bank data further projects steady performance in key non-oil areas that now form the bedrock of national output. These developments position the UAE to navigate evolving international economic dynamics with a more balanced productive base.
